Westwood assesses threshold for deep-water oil projects

Since 2007, the minimum commercial field size (MCFS) for deep-water standalone oil developments has varied between 130 and 650 MMboe, according to consultant Westwood, depending mainly on the exploration play.

Joe Killen, analyst, Global Exploration & Production, said the oil price did not have significant impact on the MCFS because costs and development designs have adjusted to lower prices.

As a play becomes more mature, he added, with additional infrastructure is put in place, and as technology also matures, the MCFS tends to decrease while the MCFS range narrows.

Typically, the MCFS can be defined through economic modelling, but Westwood’s analysis suggests that in frontier and emerging plays in particular, there is a wide range between the smallest commercial field and the largest non-commercial discovery.

For its latest report, the consultant has applied its Wildcat Exploration and Appraisal modules to estimate the MCFS for standalone deep-water oil developments in Brazil, the US and Mexican Gulf of Mexico, and Ghana.

In Brazil the range of MCFS for the post-salt Albian and younger plays was found to be in the range 230-350 MMboe, while for pre-salt reservoirs it was roughly 100 MMboe, reflecting the increased development challenges.

The Upper Cretaceous turbidite play in Ghana’s deep-water Tano basin was shown to have an estimated MCFS for a standalone development of 300 MMboe.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the range for standalone projects worked out as 130-150 MMboe for the Miocene play, and 400-500 MMboe and 520-650 MMboe respectively for the emerging Norphlet and Wilcox plays, largely due to their ultra-high-pressure/high-temperature reservoir conditions.

Outside the US Gulf of Mexico the minimum size for commercial, standalone deep-water developments was found to be substantially more than 200 MMbbl.

Source: Offshore Magazine